probabilistic analysis

Economic Analysis of Steam Production at the Geysers Geothermal Field, California

Basic Information
Author: 
Sanyal, S.K.
Author: 
Henneberger, R.C.
Author: 
Brown, P.J.
Description: 
This paper investigates the economics of steam production at The Geysers from the point of view of a field developer. We present a cash-flow analysis and the calculation of several profitability criteria for steam supply to a hypothetical 55 MW (gross) power plant starting in 1989. This paper assesses in two parts the economics of developing the steam supply: (1) a deterministic economic analysis to establish the sensitivity of the profitability criteria to steam price where each parameter is given a unique value, and (2) a probabilistic analysis to estimate the profitability criteria, and their sensitivity to steam price, when uncertain parameters are allowed to vary. The results of the study indicate that no new commercial project is economically feasible at The Geysers unless the steam price exceeds 2 cents/kw'hour, because of long payout and extremely low profitability. Only a steam price exceeding 2.7 cents/kw'hour ensures a reasonably short payout time and the minimum profitability typically expected by field developers. Above a steam price of 3 cents/kw'hr, the economics of field development are attractive and risks are low. The accelerated decline in well productivity in recent years has increased risks and reduced profitability.
Publication Date: 
Sunday, January 1, 1989
Resource Language: 
English
Intelectual Originator Contact
Organization Name: 
GeothermEx, Inc.
Street Address: 
3260 Blume Drive,Suite 220
City: 
Richmond
State/Province: 
CA
Postal Code: 
94806
Country: 
United States
Phone: 
510-527-9876
Fax: 
510-527-8164
Resource Information
Access Statement: 
Abstract available online at http://www.geothermex.com/files/Sanyal_1989-2.pdf For a copy of this paper please e-mail us at mw@geothermex.com
Resource Distribution Contact
Organization Name: 
GeothermEx, Inc.
Street Address: 
3260 Blume Drive,Suite 220
City: 
Richmond
State/Province: 
CA
Postal Code: 
94806
Country: 
United States
Phone: 
510-527-9876
Fax: 
510-527-8164
Geographic Extent
North bounding latitude: 
39.0473
South bounding latitude: 
33.6722
West bounding longitude: 
-123.574
East bounding longitude: 
-115.84
Previous Citation
Bibliographic Citation: 
S. K. Sanyal, R. C. Henneberger and P. J. Brow, 1989. Economic Analysis of Steam Production at the Geysers Geothermal Field, California. GeothermEx Inc., Richmond, California.
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